Recently, I’ve been asked to predict what 2022 will bring.

The truth is, I don’t know. 2020 did a great job of throwing a surprise party for the whole planet. 2021 was mostly just 2020 not going home after the party was over.

What’s in store for 2022? I’ve asked a number of my readers and clients. I spent a meaningful amount of time studying the intricacies of my navel and here’s where I’ve arrived:

First the summary:

2022 will be defined by unintended consequences.

All decisions and actions have consequences. Some good. Some not. Short-term, politically-expedient, fear-based, cynical decisions and actions create more challenging consequences.

The piper is ready to be paid. Not all payments will be due in 2022. But the bills will start to show up. The best leaders will anticipate and prepare themselves and their organizations for this.

Everything I list below for 2022 makes the most sense with the above premise in mind:

1) Magnetic companies will easily be able to dominate and win.

Good employees at all levels will remain hard to find. For that matter, so will half-decent employees.

The economics of the labor market have changed. The demand for employees is pervasive. The supply mysteriously evaporated.

Any company that doesn’t treat their employees well will struggle to hold them – even if you pay through the nose. Compensation matters but never as much as many people think.

Magnetic companies are those that can attract and retain ideal employees. Magnetism is powered by great cultures.

Specifically, these are cultures where people feel valued, appreciated, and challenged. Where work feels meaningful. Where co-workers behave in likable and respectable ways.  This isn’t new. It’s always been true.

What hasn’t always been true is the need to compete for scarce employees.

If growth is part of your picture for the foreseeable future, staff up if you can. Otherwise, you aren’t likely to find who you need when you need them.

Further reading:  How to Build A Magnetic Organization: Advice for Attracting and Retaining the Best People

2) Skilled and motivated leaders will be in high demand.

It’s hard and will become harder to find effective senior and executive employees.

Baby Boomers currently fill about 75% of these positions. They are starting to retire en-masse.

Demographically, there aren’t enough 40-50-year-olds to replace all the 60-70-year-olds. If your organization isn’t preparing for this, you will fall behind.

Leadership demand will mean dipping into pools of younger and less experienced leaders. Expect to see more Millennial and Gen Z executives than you thought possible.

Many will be prone to rookie errors – primarily due to being given too much too fast.

Start building your leadership bench now and keep your eyes open for more leaders to recruit. Build the kind of culture that makes recruitment easy.

3) Supply chain issues will open two opportunities.

Supply chain issues are complex. They won’t resolve with a new microchip factory, longer operating hours for ports, or indentured truck drivers.

And the supply chain isn’t about treadmills and Christmas. It’s about raw materials for construction, or health care, or transportation.

It’ll be tough to spend the infrastructure trillions without materials or equipment. Even if you can staff up.

Here’s the opportunity: Availability and reliability are no longer commodities. They are differentiators.

Opportunity 1: Logistically savvy companies will outperform others. People will pay more for what they want and need if it is reliably available. This will especially be true for government and business customers.

Opportunity 2: Regional manufacturing from locally-sourced materials will increase. Demand has increased and supply has decreased. This creates opportunities for small and mid-scale manufacturing to launch, diversify or expand.

4) Substance will matter more than signals.

Virtue signaling won’t cut it. At least not for long and not on its own.

Customers want value. Organizations that find ways to best serve their customers will come out ahead.

Know your values. Promote them. But don’t put posturing and positioning over actual service.

5) Mettle will beat malaise.

In some circles, it’s become a status symbol to see who has lived life the least over the last two years. Wide swaths of organizations have succumbed to perpetual hunkering down.

It’s killing them. And ideal, high-performing employees are looking for (and finding) better homes.

What most differentiates organizations that are doing well now and those that aren’t? Leaders who keep the fire in their bellies burning bright.

6) Moral clarity will matter…a lot.

Over a hundred years ago, a phenomenon called anomie launched the field of sociology.

Anomie is the state of anxiety people experience when a society loses a common sense of moral values and structures.

This leads to increased suicide, substance abuse, a tendency to “quit the system”, etc.

Especially if those provide clarity, purpose, and structure.

This was true a century ago. It’s only increased with 24-hour news and social media.

People don’t like feeling anxious. They look to leaders to assuage it.

They become more open to any leader that provides a sense of clarity, purpose, and structure.

This can include tyrannical, autocratic, or abusive leadership.

But it also increases the impact of effective servant-minded leaders.

Your influence will grow in proportion to your ability in these three areas:

1)  The clarity of your vision (or your ability to help verbalize the group’s vision).

2) The strength of your moral sense of purpose.

3) Your ability to define a structure that makes it easier for others to make decisions and know how to behave.

Leadership v.2022

2022 represents a significant opportunity (and need) for leaders.

Will you rise to the challenge?

Who will you bring with you?

Who do you know that you encourage, mentor, or teach to lead well?

Take good care,

Christian

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In the podcast Thought Leaders Driving Returns (TLDR), I’m interviewed by host Hunter Guthrie about how important mindset is in leadership and about effecting cultural change in the face of transition.  LISTEN HERE.

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